| # | Country | Residual | OFAC |
|---|
This visualization maps bilateral crude and refined petroleum trade flows (UN Comtrade HS 2709/2710) from 2019 to 2024, overlaid with OFAC sanctions exposure and network-derived "shadow hub" scores.
A shadow hub is a country that is unusually central in the oil trade network relative to its actual trade volume. We measure this using betweenness centrality residuals: if a country sits on many shortest paths between trading partners but doesn't move much oil itself, it has a high shadow residual.
A high shadow residual does not prove illicit activity — it identifies structurally anomalous intermediaries that may warrant closer examination. Legitimate factors (geography, refining capacity, free trade zones) can also produce elevated centrality. These scores are best understood as a screening tool for further investigation, not as definitive indicators of sanctions evasion.
Dots represent countries in the oil trade network. Note that OFAC sanctions target specific entities (individuals, companies, vessels) rather than countries per se — a high entity count reflects the number of sanctioned actors associated with that jurisdiction, not necessarily a blanket country-level sanction.
Arcs appear when you click a country dot, showing all trade flows for that country.
UN Comtrade (bilateral trade), OFAC SDN List (sanctions entities), custom network diagnostics (shadow hub residuals). Analysis period: 2019-2024.
This visualization maps bilateral crude and refined petroleum trade flows (UN Comtrade HS 2709/2710) from 2019 to 2024, overlaid with OFAC sanctions exposure and network-derived "shadow hub" scores.
A shadow hub is a country that is unusually central in the oil trade network relative to its actual trade volume. We measure this using betweenness centrality residuals: if a country sits on many shortest paths between trading partners but doesn't move much oil itself, it has a high shadow residual.
A high shadow residual does not prove illicit activity — it identifies structurally anomalous intermediaries that may warrant closer examination. Legitimate factors (geography, refining capacity, free trade zones) can also produce elevated centrality. These scores are best understood as a screening tool for further investigation, not as definitive indicators of sanctions evasion.
Dots represent countries in the oil trade network. Note that OFAC sanctions target specific entities (individuals, companies, vessels) rather than countries per se — a high entity count reflects the number of sanctioned actors associated with that jurisdiction, not necessarily a blanket country-level sanction.
Arcs appear when you click a country dot, showing all trade flows for that country.
UN Comtrade (bilateral trade), OFAC SDN List (sanctions entities), custom network diagnostics (shadow hub residuals). Analysis period: 2019-2024.